Skip to main content

Guilty Pleasure: Quebec Politics

Until recently Quebec politics had fallen into a predictable funk, where politicians could recycle 20 year old speeches with impunity since the debate had become kabuki theater (set in stone).  There is a new sheriff in town and Quebec politics is now exiting!  First, was long in coming wake up of the "non-separatist" segment of the population.  For us, Quebec's problems have nothing to do with the independence discussion, but everything to do with the societal choices that we must make today.

It started a decade ago with the "lucides" ex-politicians stating frankly the critical challenges that face Quebec, which will define us as a society; these challenges have nothing to do with our place in or out of Canada.  The process moved along with an ex-PQ MNA forming a "movement" to recast the discussion away from separation, and the final element was the destruction of the Bloc Quebecois in Ottawa.  

Since then, both main Quebec parties: Liberals and Partie Quebecois have been having difficulties.  Focusing on the PQ the unpopularity of  its leader has dominated the press for some time, she has been battling party apparatchik who dislike here and want to replace her with a more radical leader (very much like the U.S. Republican -- when the message fails double down on the radical).

That's the set-up to my comment (I can be long winded):

This morning on the french radio network of CBC  two supporters of Pauline Marois attempted to demonstrate that their cause was valid, and that their leader was had the unconditional support of the caucus.  If these guys are the best Marois could field, she's in much deeper trouble that even the press indicates.  I surprised as to the Journalist's docility, either out of conviction (my guess he is a PQ supporter) or maybe he perceived that these guys were more than able to destroy their own message, because these were two bozos!

(1) That Marois knows what she is doing: This cannot be proved, but she had proven strangely ineffective over the past two years.  She has been involved in politics for 30 years, and has been head of the party for nearly 2 years.  How much longer does she need -- and the polls are brutal toward her party and her leadership -- the PQ could be wiped off the map in the next general elections!

(2) The concept of independence is not "history" because the Scots will have a referendum on "separation" from the United Kingdom within the next 60 months, after all "the Scots have fewer grievances and don't have their own language"  -- this is so bad its like the morons never even saw the movie Brave heart, or have never heard of Gaelic -- stunning lack of knowledge.  Moreover, the Scots were very keen to separate until about two years ago (they wanted to join the Euro Zone -- my guess is that they are probably less keen today).

(3) The party supports Marois: Not so much since there has been a number of "discussions"  and some very high profile resignations.  The fact that these two morons were being interviewed disproves this very comment.

(4) My favorite, these cretins stated that since no one was authorized to speak for these caucuses (but for these two Dbags) the comments heard by the press were at the very least exaggerated, but more likely false.  Mme Marois has the broad support of here party.  That's why they have these meetings every other week...

The ship is sinking, they gave terrible examples and were terrible spokesmen -- my "gut impression" is that no one else wanted to be there, Mme. Marois was scraping the bottom of the barrel with these two incompetents.  They were so bad, that I listened to the entire interview in disbelief, I can only assume that the journalist was not listening to what they were saying because in the space of 5 minutes they did more damage to the brand than I thought possible.

Good times


Popular posts from this blog

Trucker shortage? No a plan to allow driverless rigs

There are still articles on how America is running out of truckers -- and that its a huge problem, except its not a problem, if it was a problem salaries would rise to so that demand would clear. Trucking is one of those industry where the vast majority of participants are owner/operators and therefore free agents.

Salaries and cost are extremely well know, "industry" complains that there are not enough truckers, yet wages continue to fall... Therefore there are still too many truckers around, for if there was a shortage of supply prices would rise, and they don't.

What there is though is something different; there is a push to allow automatic rigs to "operate across the US", so to encourage the various authorities to allow self driving rigs you talk shortage and hope that politicians decided that "Well if people don't want to work, lets get robots to do the work" or words to that effect.

This has nothing to do with shortage of drivers, but every…

Every punter says oil prices are on the rise: Oil hits $48/bbl -- lowest since September 2016

What the hell?

How could this be, punters, advisors, investment bankers all agreed commodity prices  in general and oil prices in particular are on the rise...its a brave new era for producers and exporters -- finally the world is back and demand is going through the roof, except not so much!

What happened?  Well energy is complicated, the world operates in a balance -- 30 days of physical reserves is about all we've got (seriously) this is a just in time business.  So the long term trend always gets hit by short term variations.

Global production over the past 12 months has risen by somewhat less than 1.5% per annum.  As the world market changes production becomes less energy intensive (maybe), but the reality is that the world is growing more slowly -- America Q4 GDP growth was around 1.9% (annualized) Europe is going nowhere fast (the GDP growth in Germany is overshadowed by the lack of growth in France, Italy, Spain (lets say 27 Euro members generated a total GDP growth of 1.2…

Paying for research

This morning I was reading that CLSA -- since 2013 proudly owned by CITIC -- was shutting down its American equity research department -- 90 people will be affected!

Now the value of a lot of research is limited, that is not to say that all research is bad. In fact, I remember that GS's Asia Aerospace research was considered the bible for the sector.  Granted, there was little you could do with the research since the "buy" was for Chinese airlines...that were state owned.  Still it was a vey valuable tool in understanding the local dynamics.  It seems that the US has introduced new legislation that forces brokers to "sell" their research services!  Figures of $10,000 an hour have been mentioned...

Now, research can be sold many times; if GS has 5000/6000 clients they may sell the same research 300x or 400x (I exaggerate) but this is the key -- Those who buy the research are, I presume, prohibited from giving it away or selling it, at the same time the same rese…