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Election night in Ontario

The Liberals won a minority government -- short one seat to have a majority.

This campaign was amazing for one fact, Ontario has fixed date election calendar, removing the advantage to the sitting government to set an optimal date for the election, and the Conservatives started the campaign with a 20% lead.

The blew-it, plain and simple.  First major disaster was the leader of the conservative who said: "wouldn't it be great if all three levels of governments were conservative!"  Toronto voters unanimously said: NO!  That was a stupid move if I've ever seen one, first off, because Torontonian that had voted in the conservatives (Tom Ford)  on the promise to "Cut waste" discovered that there was not that much waste after all, so he starting cutting the meat:  Library etc...Toronto was not amused, the same way Canadians are not amused by the Federal Government's Omnibus Crime Bill that no one in the justice system wants (judges, police, lawyers etc), the changing of Canada's Army to the Royal Canadian Armed forces, and the latest "Flag" private member's bill (which is total BS since sitting government backbenches cannot go to the can, without the express approval of the Whip).

So Ontario decided that three levels of "conservative" governments is a very bad idea, and returned the liberals to power (minority government) for a third mandate.  The impact on federal politics could be interesting, because it is well know that the Federal conservative have more or less given up on Quebec, and Toronto's heavy rejection of the conservative message will create problem for the Federal conservatives, because they need Toronto to remain in power.

This, a bit like a reality show, changes the equation for the Federal Tories (amusingly). How they behave will be fascinating to watch.  Probably somewhat less hubris.  If you take that with the election as the leader of the conservative party of Alberta of a women who is clearly at the "left edge" of the conservative party, this is a massive headache for Harper and his advisers.  The Alberta Conservative party is the foundation of the Reform Party which took over the Progressive conservative party about 15 years ago (merger).  Its roots are socially conservative -- in the resources rich Alberta financial conservatism is an oxymoron (a bit like Republicans in Alaska -- there's always some resource company available to pay for everything).  Now Ontario's has moved to the left (or remained on the left) and Toronto definitively moved to the left with a shut-out of the Conservative by the NDP and the Liberals.  Of course its not all bad, the Ontario Conservative won 20 more seat than they had -- but this is a third mandate for an unpopular government -- Ontario Conservatives should have won this (small majority), their strategy was all wrong.

Harper must be thinking that for an October that has started so well, the last few days have been depressing.  He is getting lots of resistance for some of his cherished projects (Omnibus Bill and "royal" stuff) and being outright laughed at with the "Flag Law" and its insane punishment (up to 2 years in prison...).

Interesting times

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