Skip to main content

Oil Prices & Oil Demand

The IEA provided some interesting data last week (its mostly boring stuff with some interesting "nuggets").  First, the IEA doesn't see a marked reduction on global energy demand -- so oil prices so stay "stable" assume that America doesn't declare war on Iran (that little spat could end badly -- very easily).   Now what every one knows now the non-OECD countries (e.g. the non-rich world) accounts for 50% of all oil demand but overall energy demand by non-OECD countries already (in BTU terms) already exceeds that of the OECD countries (55% for those interested), and demand in those countries unchanged growing by 5% per annum, while OECD countries oil consumption for OECD countries is largely unchanged for the past 25 years.


As far as the IEA is concerned its see's no significant reduction in energy demand for 2012/2013 period (despite the risk or recession in Europe and America), as any contraction in demand by OECD countries will be more than made up by increase in demand by non-OECD countries.  Over the past 15 years demand from non-OECD has been rising at 5% p.a. whereas OECD demand has been declining over the past 5 years.  

For Canada, and the CAD, clearly the strength of oil demand will support pricing of around $105/bbl (which by the way is the average "import" price in 2011 for the U.S. -- it says something about the irrelevance of the WTI price (currently around $85/bbl).  Canada is not a petro-economy, but its currency is!

Although we expect short term weakness in the CAD (it could easily hit the 92/1.08 range) most forecaster take the view (and why should I disagree) that parity with the USD is a given.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

what people get wrong about tariffs

 The issue is simple. What percentage of the economy is dependent on tariff goods? The truth, is that the US economy is far more closed than people understand. People genuinely believe that all manufacturing has ceased to exist in the United States all given to China on the altar of woke policy the truth can be further from That statement. Only about 15% of US GDP is related to foreign trade. Of that amount, slightly more than half is from Canada in Mexico. And half of that is energy. What that means, is that about 7% of US GDP is tariff dependent. The proof in the pudding, is how little money tariff generates. People think that 30 or 50 billion is a lot it’s not in an economy that has $3 trillion. The impact on the US economy will be less visible but not absent. Inflation hasn’t occurred yet first because tests have hardly started to bite, but more importantly it’s such a small percent of the economy. Now certain things are critical. The rare earth metals from China were critical....
Post a Comment
Read more

The end of Tesla?

 it takes a special kind of idiot, to think that he can antagonize his entire customer base, and think that it will not impact his business. When Elon Musk went to work for Donald Trump, and created the doge department, he antagonized every liberal, and these people represent 90% of his client base.That’s not a brilliant move. Now Elon Musk is worth hundreds of billions of dollar, so he shouldn’t care a great deal, however, he needs to care because of several other issues. The cyber truck has been a disaster, most have had to be recalled because of defective glue, it’s not a truck, it’s not a car, it’s noisy, relatively uncomfortable, but great as a development platform. What Tesla has learned in making car manufacturing more seamless is truly amazing. The problem was that Elon Musk was so pissed with the Democrats, and with Joe Biden, in particular because of some slight, which were just plain stupid too. By the way, that he decided to support with hundreds of millions of dollar, ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Demographics

 I am preparing a kind of family tree for our children so that they know where they came from.  In my family I am the only survivor, although my brother and sister died recently they were both in their seventies (a story I told already).    It was a fun process, but it provided more than that.  First, I married relatively young I was 26 when I married and nearly 30 when our first child was born.   I was looking at my ancestors.  On my mother's side, she had 6 siblings, Four died before the age of 30, two in war, and two from illnesses.  Only she and a single sister survived.   The two boys had a child each but they died in WWII, and the other sister died as an infant.   what is interesting is that every one of my mother's siblings had children in their early 20s.   I know that my mom was hardly 20 when my brother was born.    What is remarkable is that among our friends, we are the only ones to have fou...
Post a Comment
Read more