Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Canadian House Prices -- Gravity further delayed!

Initial impression is that this is too good to be true, but the National Bank - Teranet House Price Index is as precise as can be, measuring the change in price on "house-pairs" which takes in consideration renovations and other expenses.  As such (and looking back on the previous three months) it is as exact a measure of the change in house price across the nation.

The index shows a further 0.9% increase in the prices of Canadian homes, the 9th straight month of increase.  The regional level is somewhat different (here) but the trend is persistent.  Canadian houses are now "expensive" when compared to average (or median income), Canadian are clearly taking the view that low financing costs are here to stay.  They may be right, but again external factors could change all this.

There is no doubt that the Canadian banking sector is healthy because of the healthy housing sector. Funny enough the data seems to be indicating that there seller/buyer levels are more or less balanced (no market tightness).  Rumors are that Toronto is getting very "frothy" in the condo market with a very large percentage of buyers being "investors".

 It is hard to see what tools are available to deal with this continuing price trend.   


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