Skip to main content

Census

The boring stuff is often the important stuff.   Three weeks ago the US Census Bureau revealed the latest data.   Under the US constitution every 10 years the entire population is counted. contrary to some voices this is not a ploy by the Democrats (not a joke this is for real among some of the crazies on the right).   The questions can be political but more often than not, the questions are written by demographers to get a real understanding of the population shift.

In the last 10 years, there has been a negative shift in the US birth rate.  20 years ago, the US birthrate was about 2.2, (population replacement was 2.1).  this is not political or biased it is a simple statistical analysis.   The latest census shows that US birth rate has declined to 1.6.

This has short-term and long-term demographic consequences; economic growth in the short term will be more dynamic, and fewer children means more savings which means more capital for the economy.   In the long term, and we are talking 50+ years the implication is less positive, what we have then is what is happening at an accelerated rate in Germany, Korea and China, and what happened to Japan 20 years ago.

The Japanese economy has not had meaningful growth for 20 years.   The place is slowly emptying itself as the countryside slowly dies, how do we know this -- real estate in Japan that 30 years ago was the most expensive in the world is now incredibly cheap, there are numerous YouTube channels about young people in Japan buying nice homes in Japan for a dollar.  In the same way, you can buy property in Italy for nearly nothing.  

For the US the short-term consequence is that the economy for the next 20 years will grow quickly, more so than anywhere else in the world.   But eventually, they will pay the price.   More babies is obviously the solution, but it's not easy to convince young women to have more children.   One trend is that women have not only fewer children but also much later in life, 50 years ago, women would have children in their early 20s, and now it's the early 30s -- there is a real limit there, but demographic damage there is done.

Immigration is not the solution, it can help in the short term, but the economies that would gain the most are the most reluctant.   Here in Britain we even quit Europe to stop immigration (that's why most Brits voted for Brexit, they wanted to keep the foreigners out)

Here in the UK, the birth rate has been below 1.6 for more than 20 years, so we have reaped the economic benefits of such a population shift, however, we are now seeing rapid aging and within 30 years will be where the Germans and Koreans are today.

Interesting, no?

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Spray painting Taylor Swift G650 aircraft (updated)

 First, a bit of paint will not harm anyone.  These climate activities are going to learn two things in the next few days:  (1) Trespassing at an airport is a felony almost anywhere in the world.  That means criminal prosecution.   (2) removing paint from an aircraft is expensive.   So these climate activists are about to find out the reach of the British criminal system and it will not be pleasant, the UK has very strict laws about that, I would be surprised if cleaning the aircraft of all the paint will cost less than $100,000.     I am sure that when they planned (premeditation) this little show they had a very valid logic to doing this.  Tonight, they are probably realizing the depth of their troubles.   I understand that in the UK it's a minimum one-year jail sentence.    Also, good luck travelling with a criminal trespass charge against you.  I am relatively certain that the airline industry will ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Farm; Half year performance

 People appear to be genuinely curious. 2024 has been a record first half for the farm.  The addition of high tunnels has greatly impacted our revenues.   While we expected Q1 profits to be higher, it really was the second quarter that produced the goods.  The terrible weather has greatly impacted the production of high-end vegetables. Energy costs are now very stable and have become a fixed variable especially now that our bio digesters are fully dialled in.   Replacing some of our pre-dryer equipment was covered under warranty, and the new equipment is far better at dealing with gas moisture, and much better steel!   Our diesel costs are what they are! Our biologist and ecologist devised a new planting plan for our high tunnels that greatly reduced pests, especially slugs.   We have seen a 90% decline in sluggs this year, resulting in better yields.   It seems that several plants act as natural repelants and if planted c...
Post a Comment
Read more

Britain, France and Egypt

 The voters realize now that the Conservative Praty desire to return to 19th-century dominance has driven its hatred of the EU.  The voters realize now that departure from the EU has accelerated Britain's decline and may soon make it irrelevant.  At best it will have to kiss American arses to maintain its standing.  For this, the conservatives were punished.  The decline of Britain was inevitable, competition from Frankfurt and Germany in Finance was bound to grow.  The core of Europe (aka Germany) is aging quickly Macron seems to be winning his bet, the left alliance that won the legislative elections will not remain united for long, since they disagree on about everything.   The Far right though it was about to assume power is once again relegated to the back of the bus.   It may draw its own conclusions, but not all of these are good for France.  The far-right has won nearly 1/3rd of the electorate, that is not something to be ig...
Post a Comment
Read more