What is happening now is that real estate prices are falling gently, the fall is due to two factors: (a) Real estate is a store of value in China and not a source of income, (b) debt burden are generally small for investors rather they pool their resources to buy the apartments (buying clubs). Again NO ONE anticipates any income from the properties, in 99% of cases they are left unfinished to reduce the tax burden, the assumption is that an eventual buyer will finish the apartment (eg install bathroom and windows).
In China, an apartment is like a bank account, to be used to finance retirement. It has never been seen as a potential source of income. Selling of apartments only arises when cash is required. The only measured valuation for the price of real estate in China is NEW apartments, not the secondary market. Granted if you purchased a small apartment in the outskirts of Shanghai in the early 2000, the capital appreciation is good in nominal terms.
I mentioned before that ex-clients liquidated their entire Chinese real estate portfolio. In all, the family sold 20 properties. They were bought between 1995 and 2018. Most of the apartments were sold for between 75% and 90% of the invested amount, which is not too bad, but it is important to understand that the early purchases are now very well situated in and around Shanghai, which has grown tremendously over the past 20 years. For the expensive apartment they purchased in 2018, they got about 20% back. They were leaving China and were liquidating everything. For them, 20% was better than nothing. The average return on investment over 20 years was about -20%.
China faces several related problems; its population is aging quickly, far more so than anticipated, the imbalance. 10 years ago, at the second to last census, the male/female imbalance was reported to range between 4% and 20% depending on the province. In 2022, the Shanghai Academy of Science and the government agreed that nearly 200 million Chinese were never born, the VAST majority are women, who would have been born between 1985 and 2010. That means that the sex imbalance is probably greater than was reported in the last census.
Chinese investors have about 90% of their savings in Real Estate, the Chinese government has actively harmed private enterprises and so middle-class Chinese retirees are increasingly relying on savings to meet their retirement income requirements. The only solution is to use up savings, and 90% of all savings are in real estate. In addition, having few if any children or grandchildren further reduces the family network. Stories are coming out: families of 20 or so individuals where there is only one person below the age of 20.
The Chinese real estate disaster is a slow-moving steamroller. Its movement is imperceptible but relentless, and the current government action in promoting the purchase of (new) apartments is the equivalent of putting a single grape in front of the steamroller.
A very good friend's son lives in Japan. Not only did he purchase a house in central Tokyo for almost nothing (less than $70,000) he also purchased a beach house, walking distance from a train station for less than $30,000, and it's in move-in condition. The family from whom he purchased the Tokyo house had bought it in 1985 for 10 million Yen, or about a million dollars.
The demographic collapse has only one outcome for the real estate market; price fall. At first, the price fall is hardly significant, but eventually, it collapses. the price of the beach house is less than a quarter of the replacement cost of the building. That's all it's worth now. For my friend's son. Both are excellent investments because in less than 3 years his real estate investment will have been equal to his entire rental budget. The houses are free after three years.
Note: Rental apartments (which will consider leasing to foreigners) are rare and expensive. The price is a measure of scarcity. Hence buying the property was a very sound investment. In 3 years both properties will be fully paid off. After that, he will live there rent-free...
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