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$5,000 killer drone & Russia buying North Korean missiles

This takes the cake, a $5,000 drone with a 5 kg carrying capacity made out of cardboard, invisible to radars is causing Russia real headaches, and military planners everywhere a rethink of their defence procedures.  These slow-moving cardboard Australian reconnaissance aircraft drones have been repurposed to become kamikaze attack platforms that can (and have probably) destroyed aircraft, radars and maybe even fuel depots.  

The key here is the cost.  If a Su27 aircraft can be disabled or destroyed (as seems to have been the case two weeks ago), for a cost of $5,000 (where the aircraft are worth $30 million each) the Russian Air Force has a real problem.  Moreover, these drones are easy to assemble, totally stealthy and have a range of nearly 70 miles.  The destroyed aircraft were nearly 400 miles from the front.  

Russia has been forced to position its aircraft even further away from the Ukraine front.

The way forward in the current war is hard to estimate.  There are many issues at hand.  Success for Ukraine is hard to quantify since this is not the first time Russian troops invaded the country (also in 2014).  Removing Putin is unlikely to change anything, considering that the Russian's position is one of protecting the homeland and re-establishing the old Soviet borders. 

The Ukrainians have learned valuable lessons over the past two years.  They have also been smart with their resources and deployed inventive solutions for dealing with the Russian army. 

The rumours are that the Russians have completed negotiations with North Korea and Iran to purchase missiles.  They are generally not very good, with a target error range of 200/500 meters, but the Russians can probably improve this performance.  The question is what did Russia offer in exchange, my educated guess would be satellite launch windows for both nations.  

The game is getting interesting, and the advantages won by Korea and Iran are potentially game changers.


BTW, and I am not a strategist.  I see no obvious win for the Ukrainian forces, the only thing I worry about is once the Russians win, what happens next, are they off to Poland next?


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