It's never who you think, and yesterday the biggest loser was the Scottish National Party! Sure the Tories got walloped, that's not a surprise, but they retained 121 seats, Reform got 4, nowhere as much as they had hoped and they too will go down the history hole as they rightly deserve. The surprise was the Liberals from 8 to 71. That's the surface result.
In terms of the vote, Reform was the third most popular party well ahead of the Liberals, but it's not so much that the Liberals gained votes it's that Reform took away from the Tories. Labour saw its share of the vote rise by 1.7%, the largest gain was Reform, but it was diffuse, and so Tories voters voted for Reform. No one expected that the Tories would do well, but no one saw the total destruction of the Scottish National Party. Righly, the Tories got killed at the poll, the vast majority of their supporters went for Reform, and that allowed the Liberals to slip between Tories and Labour.
Sunak is done, but he was always done. Keir has a massive majority. The vote Reform received will create a force for at least the next cycle. It is entirely possible that Reform does well in the 2029 elections, but it is also possible that the Tory flock returns to its natural habitat, but that's a story for the future.
Note: If the UK had proportional representation Labour would have won 206 seats, Conservative 150, Libs 75 SNP 15 and Reform 87. A coalition government...not relevant but interesting.
Note2: I didn't even notice, but Liz Truss lost her job too. Now she's on equal footing with Boris to reclaim her position as the leader of the conservatives...
Comments