The end of South Africa has been long and coming. It is not a case of wishing ill will for that country but just an observation of the long-anticipated collapse. Pressures began in earnest in the mid-1970s. The first real instance was the boycott of the Montreal Olympics where many nations decided to not participate. This was the first true pressure on the country. One impact was to significantly raise the cost of investing in infrastructure. In 1975 the population of South Africa was 26 million, about half of what it is today.
Between 1975 and 1994 when the ANC and the black majority took power, the cost of capital in South Africa tripled, mainly because a good chunk of the world would no longer trade with them. They could not buy gas turbines from GE, or Alstrom. So not only was the cost of infrastructure higher, but the white ruling class was no longer worried about the next 30 years, they were concerned with the next 12 months. Government infrastructure expenses dropped to nearly zero.
When the ANC came to power, despite the decision of some to have a national reconciliation, there was a goal to enrich the black population that had been stepped on for nearly a century. It became policy that contracts would be given to favourite sons without regard to competence or honesty. Not an insane policy, because these black-owned companies would hire competent engineers and workers...which they did! That was a successful policy, but over time it also became a source of patronage.
The most evident impact of that policy was the power grid, in 2010 Escom began building two new gas-powered power plants. As of 2024 these two plants are hardly operating, and have cost nearly 10 times their stated budget. The bulk of the money allocated to the project was stolen. The government could not blame Escom, because they had no control over the construction, budgeting or delivery of the power stations. It was done by an ANC-controlled company. The last blow to South Africa is the potable water shortage. A combination of poor weather, terrible planning and crumbling infrastructure are all elements of their current predicament.
This is a story of greed and short term vision over nearly 50 years. Who worries about the future when the present is uncertain. My South African roommate at University had no intention of returning to South Africa upon graduating, which is why he eventually got his PhD and has lived for more than 20 years in the US. His parents, now deceased, were doctors, as were his two sister, both work in the UK. The entire family emigrated, as did most of their professional friends. Engineers, doctors, accountants, dentists anyone with an exportable skill left the country that had been their home for more than 200 years...
South Africa's ANC has been outstanding at ignoring the issues. Power shortages were the fault of "the white man running Escom" (he now lives in the Netherlands), despite all evidence of ANC corruption at every level. Without water and electricity living in the big cities becomes intolerable.
This last anecdote is telling. There is a well-regarded catamaran manufacturer in South Africa. Over the past three years the quality of their vessels has started to suffer, the specific issue is part of the fibreglass hull is not infused with epoxy resin, the problem is that because of power failures vacuum pumps which are supposed to pull the epoxy into the fibreglass matrix is incomplete. This shortage of epoxy means that hulls have no strength. Also, marine components (wires) have been replaced by their non-marine equivalent (cheaper & available).
To add to South Africa's misery is the Aids epidemic that has gutted part of their demographics. For years South Africa has been dangerous. Daytime attacks, living behind fortification, but this is just the beginning. Eventually, the people will rise and will blame their rulers for the failure.
Then all bets are off!
Note: I want to be clear, the failure of South Africa has nothing to do with the "blacks taking power" but it has to do with the impact of unrestrained patronage to destroy a country's infrastructure. South Africa is the best known, but there is, I believe in Niger a "dam that cost $400 million" that was financed at 100% and was never built, the entirety amount was stolen.
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