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When political parties desintegrate

Obviously, most of what I write here is about the US conservative movement, embodied by the Republican party (aka GOP or RNC).   Here in the UK, Mr Sunak will make it to the next election, which the conservatives will lose and Mr Senak will probably resign and return to private life.  Being the ex-leader of the Conservatives where they may even be the second opposition may not be much fun.  But only time and the election outcome will tell.  

In the US things are more public and far more interesting.  Obviously, the big news is that Trump is now the nominee for the GOP, and as well Biden is the nominee for the Democrats.  Robert Kennedy, of the Kennedy family, tried to mount a campaign against Biden, but first, it was financed by GOP donors and he's crazy, so that went nowhere. Plus many members of this family campaigned against him...

In addition, the head of the Republican party resigned a few weeks ago and has been replaced by Trump's daughter-in-law, who announced that 100% of the party's effort would be for either Donald Trump or to pay his legal bills.  In addition, the place was cleared out of senior operatives, somewhere between 50 and 80 either resigned or were fired.  All other activity would cease. (Note the RNC announced that they will keep some activities, but it may just be to appease and will have no money for these activities).

The House Republicans had a get-together in Virginia last weekend, and to say that attendance was poor less than half showed up) would be an understatement, not only was the "three-days two-nights" confab shortened to a single day, but many of the guest speakers cancelled their presence including Donald Trump.  It would be fair to say that the House Republicans are dispirited and infighting is out of this world.

(1) It gets worse for the house republicans, because many of the less extreme members will/have lost their primaries, and several will probably say enough and leave their post before the election, on election day the Democrats could be the majority Party.

(2) It gets worse, the GOP's funding has dried up over the last year, and the party is now sitting on less than $15 million.  Even Trump is sitting on only $35 million, which when compared to Biden's $150 million and the Democratic Party's $100 million is a real problem. Money is everything.

(3) It gets worse, Laura Trump the new head of the GOP has announced that no money will be available for candidates (other than Tump) no activity to get voters to participate and no outreach to minorities.  If you think about it the Latinos are the perfect target for the GOP, as they are socially very conservative.

(4) It gets worse,  Joe Biden's sense of humour is back, and Trump is as miserable as ever.

(5) It gets worse, a new study came out two days ago, that showed that 19% of Republicans who voted in the primaries will not vote for Trump, up from 9% in 2020.  The implication for the wider base is bad, although they are not invested in the election process, in the past the GOP has counted on its grass root to get the vote out, there will be many missing, and without national coordination (the RNC) it will be difficult to change that trend.

(6) It gets worse, Fox News is starting to show that Trump is a bumbling idiot.  That's a big shift, many Fox commentators remain ardent supporters of Trump, and the polling numbers seem to show Trump ahead, but the elections are in six months, and Trump's inability to "rally the troops" even going as far as calling those who supported other candidates as traitors to the party, says a lot.

(7) It gets worse, the new Trump message as of last Friday is to compare the economy in 2020 to 2024, saying "You had it better", considering that 2020 was the year of the lockdown...

All these factors give the RNC terrible heartburn.  In addition, by saying that the RNC will only support Trump's election, why give to the RNC, since it will go to Trump, if you want to support Trump you do it directly.  Big business has already cut its ties to the RNC, they are no longer part of the team, and they are seen as traitors.  Money is the oxygen of a political party, in an election year there is nothing more important than money, it allows you to do the difficult, boring yet essential work required during that year.  The RNC will be starved of both funds and talent.  


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